China- Pakistan Economic Corridor- Myth and Reality

The Pakistan started the work on China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) with a much fanfare. It claimed that the CPEC is a game changer which gave it and lot of publicity. The common man of Pakistan was made to understand that that this is going to change the future of their country but the reality was different. When CPEC started, the differences between Pakistan and Chinese authorities were visible from the very first day.

It became prominent when the Chinese work at Daimer- Bhasha Dam was stopped by Pak authorities. We must understand that when China decided to invest a heavy amount of over 60 Billion Dollar value in a rogue nation, it failed to analyse that is Pakistan secure enough for such massive foreign engagement?  and if yes, then does it has a future too.

To cater for the security concern of the dragon, Pakistan created a special security division in early 2017 with a large force of over 15,000 soldiers. It selected its best soldiers and officers for the same so that Chinese authorities feel a sense of security but attacks on the labour and other installations have not stopped and it failed ultimately in its primary purpose.

There is a serious concern towards the success of CPEC in addition to the financial and diplomatic differences between Pakistan and China and that is terrorism. Many attacks on CPEC related projects have happened in Pak and more number of attacks cannot be ruled out. The violence has also caused major setbacks to the project. In fact, Pakistan has been hiding the security risks pertaining to the projects in the shadows of economic development. There has been the killing of over 100 people since the work has started and this include a sizeable number of Chinese personal too.

So far Pakistani authorities are perceiving the threat only in Baluchistan and hence a sizeable portion of this CPEC security division is stationed in that area. However, it failed to understand that in the aftermath of defeats in Middle east, ISIS fighters are also looking for an alternative territory from where they can re-launch themselves. Surprisingly they cannot have a better option than Pakistan in the recent event of a tug of war with United States. It is highly possible that ISIS may form a coalition with Taliban and Haqqani network to establish its foothold in Pakistan, a situation which is going to create tensions not only for Pakistan and China but also for India.

For ISIS, the value of an Islamic country be it Pakistan is nothing. For them, US, Europe and China are the enemy and they have reiterated it time and again. As per a statement of Syrian Ambassador to Beijing, ISIS has about 5000+ Uighur fighters in its cadres and this is a very serious situation. In the case if ISIS coming to Pakistan, planned targeting of Chinese assets cannot be ruled out while killing of Chinese officials by these Uighur fighters is a high possibility. There are also possibilities that these ISIS fighters could form a coalition with Baloch Guerrillas which will be catastrophic as major part of CPEC is in Baluchistan. Currently too, most of the attacks on CPEC are happening in Baluchistan only.

Even if Pakistan mobilizes all its forces and able to counter the threat of Baloch Guerrillas as well as ISIS terrorists, it has a long list of problems ahead. The country which is used to survive at the grants and aids of other countries especially America is poorly performing towards its own development. The economy is sinking and they are under a false assurance that CPEC will start showering them with trillions of dollars instantly. The same assurance is passed on to their innocent public by their corrupt politicians too.

But what they must understand that CPEC is not a boon given by the China to its so called best friend Pakistan. When China moved in to decide on this partnership, there was nothing called friendship in this case. China was looking for an alternative route for its oil and gas as well as exports to other countries. At present, almost 100% of china’s maritime exports are through the strait of Malacca and with the ongoing tension in south china sea, the blockade of this route by United states cannot be ruled out. As a result, China had no option but to look for alternative routes to his supplies.

With the present CPEC, China is not only getting the shortest route for its exports to Western countries but also ensuring a smooth passage to its oil supplies by a dedicated pipeline from Gwadar to Xinxiang. On one hand, this is a win-win situation to China, but for Pakistan it is a going to be a disaster. A major portion of the investment is coming in the form of loan so here we have a funny situation. China is giving loan not to Pakistan but its own Chinese companies which are building infrastructure for the use of Chinese businesses and the loan will be repaid by Pakistan with massive interest.

So, except the development of infrastructure and few Jobs to Pakistani People in CPEC related projects, Pakistan is not achieving anything out of it. The revenues which it is likely to get from this infrastructure will be taken away by Chinese companies. It is understood that as per the agreement, the revenue of these projects will be shared between China and Pakistan. But the reality is something different. While Chinese companies will take away their lion’s share of profits, they will also consume the Pakistani share towards the re-payment of loan and interest which they invested for this project. What Pakistan is going to get is a clear question. The situation is not going to improve anyway. 

Moreover, with the recent developments like declaring Chinese Yuan as major international trade currency, establishing of Chinese Military bases in Pakistan and operationalising the Chinese Banks and other financial institutions in Pakistan, it is very much clear that even if the CPEC becomes successful, the Pakistan is going to be a slave of China anyway.